The league phase of the Champions League is set, a dizzying collage of 144 games between early September and late January that will set Europe's best clubs on course for the final at Madrid's Estadio Metropolitano on June 5. Such an overwhelming schedule can sometimes be tough to parse through. Will holders Paris Saint-Germain welcome the competitive tune up that comes with games against Barcelona and Manchester City?
Is it good news for Aston Villa that they get to go back to Istanbul, scene of their Europa League triumph, as part of two games against Turkish opposition? And are there any teams for whom the best outcome is simply the taking part? Let's parse through what the holy trinity of Thierry Henry, David Villa and Giorgio Marchetti have delivered...
The new league phase format makes the variance in draw quality notably less pronounced than in the previous iteration of four groups of eight. Back then, get the best that Pot Two had to offer and one of those arrivistes that hovered around Pot Four and you could be in for a really tricky time. Or you could be Manchester City and meander your way to 15-plus points every autumn without catching any attention.
Now, well, everyone is going to get two from each section. There's only so much damage Pot One can do to your chances, only so many solids that Pot Three can afford you. Having said that, Liverpool have come out better than most.
Atletico Madrid are the weakest of the Pot One teams according to both their Elo rating and the quality of the squad they can put on the field. Inter too are one of the more favorable teams that Pot One could deliver, though both these teams might also be happier with Liverpool than PSG, Bayern Munich or Arsenal. Further down there are trips to a weakened Club Brugge and Austrian side LASK while home games against Porto, Villarreal and Lens should be easy enough to negotiate.
Fenerbahce away promises to be a hostile atmosphere for a team who were downed by Galatasaray last season but Andoni Iraola can feel that he is not spending too much of his first Champions League season swimming with the big beasts. Indeed, a run at the top two seems eminently plausible. The luck of the draw was not on table-topping Liverpool's side when they got PSG in 2025 but the best way to manipulate the odds in your favor is to finish as high as possible in the league phase.
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