Every Championship, League One and League Two game is live on Sky throughout the opening weekend, with more than 1,000 live games from the EFL, Carabao Cup and the EFL Trophy on Sky Sports. Fans can watch free highlights on the free Sky Sports app after every match round, as well as getting debate and analysis with the Essential EFL podcast and The EFL Show on Sky Sports News, a new weekly slot every Monday from 2pm. Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player Wolves hold the tag of second favourites for the Championship title at 5/1 with Sky Bet - and rightly so - but I'm always wary of backing teams that have made losing football matches a habit, especially in the early stages of a season when playing a level down.
When assessing the last 10 teams that enter the Championship having taken 25 or points or less in the Premier League, their record across the first five games of the season is poor. Of those 50 games, the relegated team won just 15 - a strike rate of just 30 per cent. The market has Wolves in at 1/2 here, meaning an implied probability of 66 per cent.
That looks a shade too high for me, based on the unknowns still regarding this Wolves side. Also, those 50 games also produced a goals per game average of 2.1 which points towards this being a low-scoring fiddly opener for Wolves, who might be lacking some rhythm. Tony Mowbray takes charge of Blackburn again and despite his health issues and below-par results at his last three clubs, his teams did only concede 1.1 expected goals per 90 minutes across that 85-game sample size.
Under 2.5 goals at Evens with Sky Bet is the bet. Preston had a very strong record away from home against the bottom half last season, losing just three of those 15 games but there was a big over-performance which averaged at 0.9 goals per game when you analyse the expected goals supremacy. The departure of captain Ben Whiteman to Wrexham and the loss of important attacking contributions from Lewis Dobbin and Daniel Jebbison also give Paul Heckingbottom a problem.
He saw his team lose four on the bounce in pre-season and a season of struggle could be on the cards. Looking at previous seasons, newly-promoted teams in the Championship have a solid record of starting the season full of momentum and Bolton can land favourites backers a winner here at 5/4 with Sky Bet. There is a temptation to look at Millwall's third-place finish last season and think: that was a bit of a freak, wasn't it?
Millwall were third because they were really good at accumulating points. They won 24 of their 46 league matches, lost only 11 and conceded just 49 goals. Alex Neil has brought a greater degree of tactical flexibility without taking away the characteristics you associate with Millwall.
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