Michael Carrick will arrive at Stamford Bridge on Saturday with the air of a dead man walking. Yet despite Manchester United being fifth-bottom of the Premier League and Chelsea fifth-top, the Blues have performed worse this season according to Opta’s expected points model. Is there a glitch in the matrix?
Has the fabled supercomputer clicked on a suspicious link? Even though the margin between their data is small, it feels unthinkable that Chelsea could be below United’s level. That is until you review a few statistics.
Xabi Alonso’s side held healthy expected goal margins in their wins over Fulham, Brighton and Everton, but were heavily outgunned against Arsenal and Brentford. The xG count went slightly against them versus Hull, Bournemouth and Tottenham, which is concerning when all three were at home in matches they would reasonably expect to win. Opta’s data suggests Chelsea are the 12th-best team in the Premier League.
They have risen to fifth by virtue of a hot finishing streak. Chelsea have scored 6.7 goals more than the quality of their chances imply they deserve, second only to Brighton (6.8), or above them if penalties are excluded. Chelsea scored five times from 10 shots against Bournemouth; while not without precedent, managing so many goals from so few efforts happens less than once a season in the Premier League.
Jordan Henderson has scored twice from five shots outside the box, after finding the net once for every 20 long-range efforts he attempted between 2014 and last season. Pedro Neto’s total of three league goals is two shy of his career best for a Premier League campaign. Morgan Rogers outscoring his expected goals figure is not unusual but he is ahead by 1.87 when he was up 3.15 across the whole of last season.
This trio are unlikely to maintain such hot form across another 30 league games. Adding in João Pedro gives Chelsea four of the 12 players who are above their non-penalty xG by at least 1.5 in the Premier League this season. The two league games the Brazilian missed are the two in which Chelsea failed to score, mustering a combined 1.3 expected goals across those matches (against Brentford and Tottenham).
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