This was a Budget I would describe as a flotilla of small measures. Westminster is poring over the 150 page Red Book, external in which the Budget is printed and also what is formally called the Economic and Fiscal Outlook published, external by the watchdog and forecaster the Office for Budget Responsibility, the OBR. The Red Book sets out the measures the chancellor will implement and how much they will cost.
There are 98 of them, considerably more than normal and more than in either of Rachel Reeves' budgets. But nearly all of them are pretty small in terms of their impact on the Treasury's spreadsheets. This gets to the heart of why those involved in compiling this Budget have been irritated by commentary in the build up to it suggesting there would be nothing to see in John Healey's address – but also why those suggesting that were arguably onto something as well.
Firstly, as expected, it was a much smaller Budget in overall tax and spending terms than plenty of recent ones have been. But there were plenty of measures here and there which the chancellor will hope enough people notice and value – and others that some will likely curse. There are more taxes for savers and landlords, for instance, and too for banks.
When a government has promised, as Labour have, to not put up income tax, national insurance or VAT – the big revenue generators – they end up looking elsewhere if they conclude putting up tax is necessary. That runs the political risk of choosing particular sectors who might respond rather noisily. Think of the plenty of farmers who were incensed by the changes to inheritance tax Rachel Reeves was keen on.
Live: Healey announces £100 energy bill help for millions and raises taxes on banks Your pay, energy bills and savings: How the Budget affects you Chancellor begins to deliver his first Budget The central challenge for Healey, which he shares with his recent predecessors, is the public finances are in a mess and so are the personal finances of so, so many households. And there is a recurring sense of déjà vu in the language of the OBR. "The UK's economic and fiscal position remains very challenging," it says, with a splash of understatement, adding that "there have been further adverse developments" this year with in the conflict in the Middle East.
As for what happens, next, well, frankly, who on earth knows. Or, as the OBR puts it: "The outlook for the economy and the public finances is uncertain, with significantly better or worse outcomes of broadly equal probability." The Budget book argues that "the UK economy is showing signs of resilience" but it is also true that the national debt, tax burden, inflation and interest rates are high, going up or both – and there could yet be further economic shocks that make things worse. What happens, for instance, in the Middle East, one the mid term elections are done in America and the result of the Israeli general election is clear?
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