Progressives are hoping a last-minute surge in momentum can boost Karishma Manzur in the Democratic primary for the New Hampshire Senate race, but Representative Chris Pappas holds a lead in polling and prediction markets. New Hampshire is a Democratic-leaning swing state that backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by only about 3 points in the 2024 election, the most closely divided New England state. But both parties view the race as competitive this year as incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen is retiring at the end of her term.
Democrats believe the national environment, driven by anti-Trump fervor, should keep the seat in their hands, but Republicans believe the candidacy of former Senator John Sununu could make the race more competitive than expected, and a few recent polls suggest a statistical tie. Tuesday's primary will shape the contours of the general election. Pappas has been viewed as the frontrunner, but progressives are hoping Manzur could pull an upset after a recent poll from the University of New Hampshire suggested a tightening race.
Sununu is viewed as the favorite in the Republican primary against former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown. Newsweek reached out to the Pappas and Manzur campaigns for comment via email. The latest independent poll of the race from the University of New Hampshire showed Pappas up 13 points over Manzur, 47 percent to 34 percent.
It surveyed 2,143 New Hampshire residents, including 881 Democratic primary voters, from August 20-24. The poll’s overall margin of error was plus or minus 2.1 percentage points. That marks a narrowing race from UNH’s earlier polls.
Pappas led by 24 points in June, 43 points in April and 54 points in January, according to the pollster. Other recent polls have given Pappas a larger lead. A Saint Anselm College poll showed Pappas up 31 points, 59 percent to 28 percent.
It surveyed 733 likely Democratic voters from August 17-18 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points among Democratic voters. A GQR poll, a Pappas internal, showed him up 56 points, 71 percent to 15 percent. It surveyed 422 Democratic voters from August 19 to 25, and its margin of error was not published.
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