Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer received another warning sign about his popularity relative to Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez among New York voters, as the progressive congresswoman has been floated as a potential challenger ahead of his 2028 reelection. Ocasio-Cortez, who represents parts of Queens and the Bronx in the House of Representatives, is seen as a new leader of the progressive movement, which gained significant ground in New York during this year’s Democratic primaries. Her next steps will be closely watched over the coming months, as some Democrats expect she will either run for president or challenge Schumer for his Senate seat.
Some progressives view her as the best choice for the left in the 2028 presidential race, as it’s not clear who else could occupy the left-leaning lane in the Democratic primary; but others believe she should run for Senate against Schumer, whose popularity has waned as Democratic voters are frustrated with what they view as a lethargic approach to President Donald Trump’s administration. A new poll released Thursday by the organization Education Reform Now Advocacy (ERNA) found that Schumer’s popularity in New York lags behind Ocasio-Cortez ahead of a potential 2028 challenge. Schumer’s net favorability rating stood at -13 points, while Ocasio-Cortez’s was +8 points across the state, according to the poll.
Fifty-two percent of respondents said they view Schumer unfavorably, compared to 39 percent viewing him favorably and 10 percent who didn’t know. Meanwhile, 47 percent of respondents said they viewed Ocasio-Cortez favorably, with 39 percent viewing her unfavorably and 14 percent unsure, according to the poll. It surveyed 505 respondents in New York from August 19 to 21, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Schumer, once a popular figure in the state, has seen diminishing favorability ratings in the second Trump era. He is up for reelection in 2028 and has faced a wave of Democratic backlash over his leadership. Many Democrats have pushed for a more aggressive approach to the Trump administration, though leadership has noted that the party does not control either chamber of Congress and cannot push back on his priorities.
Frustration came to a head last year after Schumer helped advance a Republican-backed government funding bill with little fight, yielding no concessions from Republicans. The backlash prompted calls for him to face a primary challenge next year. Ocasio-Cortez has not said whether she plans to run for the Senate, but a poll released last year suggests she would start the primary in a strong position.
The poll, conducted by Data for Progress among 767 likely New York Democratic primary voters from March 26 to 31, 2025, showed Ocasio-Cortez with nearly a 20-point lead in a hypothetical 2028 primary matchup between the two. The margin of error associated with the sample size is plus or minus 4 percentage points. Fifty-five percent of respondents said they would pick her over Schumer, while 36 percent said they would stick with the incumbent.
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