The bubble for the College Football Playoff is getting crowded and many of the teams trying to plow through the doors have nationally-ranked matchups this week that spike the intrigue. Signature win opportunities seemingly come every weekend in the SEC, a league dominating the AP Top 25 Poll through Week 6. However, the fastest way to exit playoff buzz is multiple losses and there's already a few teams on the verge of sinking.
Forget projecting a clean path to Selection Sunday. There's only nine unbeatens left and we're expecting at least a third of those teams to lose this month. Based on our Week 7 College Football Playoff projections, these are the squads that did not make the final top-12 cut this week who have earned a spot in the conversation with half of this season left to make an impression on the selection committee.
The Tigers boast the Power Four's leading rusher (Jamal Roberts, 828 yards), flex the SEC fourth highest-rated passer (Austin Simmons) and haven't missed a beat defensively in havoc numbers despite several new starters. It's time Eli Drinkwitz's squad starts getting the respect it deserves as the league's fourth — perhaps even third — best team. Missouri didn't make our updated CFP projection this week because of what the Tigers have left.
Saturday's game at Ole Miss is one of three against top-10 opponents and the Tigers host Kentucky and Oklahoma over the final two weeks of November. It's a brutal slate, but one that offers prime CFP billing if Missouri delivers. Ranked No. 10 in strength of record up to this point, the Bulldogs will also get a boost from the CFP selection committee with the added strength of conference metric this season, another data point to help SEC squads.
Mississippi State is more than quarterback Kamario Taylor, but if he's banged up and misses Saturday's contest at LSU, that's a loss that will be difficult to overcome considering Oklahoma, Texas and Ole Miss remain. Right now, the Bulldogs are closer to a eight-win team than 10, which is what's necessary to play themselves off the bubble. Two road tests (at Minnesota, at Northwestern) along with Wisconsin and Nebraska at home stand between the Hawkeyes and 11 regular-season wins.
There's a chance Kirk Ferentz's team gets to that magic CFP number without a ranked victory, however. We don't foresee a scenario in which an 11-win Big Ten at-large team gets passed in favor of a team with a worse record and better resume, but it's possible. Unfortunately for the Hawkeyes, the opportunity to impress was Oct. 3 against Ohio Stat and they were out-classed by the Buckeyes.
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