Indiana entered the 2024 season rebooting under new coach Curt Cignetti after a 3-9 year and with just seven total victories over the three prior seasons. Merely making a bowl game would have been regarded as a smashing success. No one expected a College Football Playoff run (except maybe Cignetti himself).
But as Indiana kept stacking victories with an 11-1 regular season, its dark-horse CFP candidacy became impossible to ignore. The Hoosiers made their historic breakthrough as the No. 10 seed in the first-ever 12-team CFP, but fell 27-17 to Notre Dame in the first round. The dark-horse Hoosiers of 2024 laid the groundwork for the 2025 team's perfect season.
A month into the 2026 season, it's time to start paying attention to who the dark-horse contenders are this time around. Among the 10 identified here are five teams with first-year coaches. As Cignetti showed in 2024, rebuilding a team doesn't have to take years.
Even long-dormant programs can ascend quickly in the mass-transfer era. That's what we are seeing with Florida, UCLA and others who are off to strong starts in 2026 after being ranked outside the top 20 to begin the season. Here is our rundown of this year's top dark-horse contenders to reach the CFP.
Preseason rankings reflect where teams stood in the CBS Sports 138 entering Week 1. Odds to make the CFP are from DraftKings. Preseason ranking: 22Odds to make CFP: -156 Florida entered the 2026 season 29-34 over the past five years and rebooting with its fifth new coach since Urban Meyer.
It didn't take long for Jon Sumrall to lead the Gators out of the wilderness. Behind a 4-0 start highlighted by a Week 4 demolition of No. 9 Ole Miss, Florida is surging up the odds sheet ahead of this week's trip to No. 25 Missouri. It will be the beginning of a massive October, which includes a trip to No. 1 Texas (Oct. 17) and a neutral-site showdown with No. 2 Georgia (Oct. 31).
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