Allegations of a pay-to-play scheme involving Senator Susan Collins and a former defense contractor have rocked the Maine Republican’s bid for reelection only six weeks out from the 2026 midterms. Strategists are raising questions about her prospects and prediction markets have shown a boost in odds for her rival, the Democrat Troy Jackson, after ProPublica published a report alleging that Collins rewarded the company Navatek for political contributions with federal funding, and that a Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) probe into the matter was abandoned after President Donald Trump's return to office. In a statement to Newsweek on Tuesday, Jackson said Collins was guilty of "corruption of the highest order." Collins’s office has denied that the Senator engaged in any wrongdoing, however, telling Newsweek that the allegations detailed by ProPublica were "categorically false." But the Maine-based political consultant and longtime Democratic strategist Toby J.
McGrath said that the report could upset the so-far even balance of the Maine contest, telling Newsweek: "All stories, especially negative stories that potentially break the public trust, are important in close elections." However, he noted that this will hinge on whether the story itself can cut "through the noise," and whether Mainers "believe anything nefarious occurred." ProPublica’s report was based on interviews with dozens of people familiar with the matter as well as legal, corporate and campaign finance records. It alleges that Collins steered millions of dollars’ worth of contracts and funding to the Hawaii-based firm Navatek, which offered campaign finance contributions in return—including a reported $150,000 donation sent to her super PAC via a shell company. An FBI investigation was launched into the matter, but ProPublica reports that the corruption teams assigned to the case had been hollowed out following Trump’s return to office last January, and that the probe died as a result.
An FBI spokesperson told ProPublica that the investigation had concluded years prior and "ultimately found nothing implicating Senator Collins or Senator Collins’s campaign. Any suggestion otherwise is totally false." Annie Clark, who serves as Collins’s deputy chief of staff, told Newsweek that Collins’ campaign "cooperated fully" with the FBI during the investigation. The report has landed as polls show a close contest for the Maine Senate seat—among the most closely watched in this year’s elections.
A recent CNN/SSRS poll found Jackson leading Collins 48 percent to 45 percent—within its margin of error—while Quantus Insights, in a survey conducted September 14 and 15, found the pair "nearly even as divides by age, gender and geography leave neither candidate with a clear advantage." The race is considered a toss-up by most major forecasters, including the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. But while no polls have been conducted or published since its publication, the ProPublica report appears to have given Collins’s rival a slight boost. On Polymarket, Jackson’s odds of success have risen to 74 percent, up from 70 percent on Monday.
On Kalshi, these chances have increased to 72 percent from 67 percent over the same period. And as well as the possibility of further legal inquiries, McGrath said that there "could be electoral consequences for Senator Collins." "The question really is: will Mainers be paying attention to this information? Will it break through?" he told Newsweek.
"With the bombardment of advertising going on, cutting through the noise is the first step. The second step, will Mainers believe anything nefarious occurred? McGrath said that the section of the ProPublica report outlining how Trump "got in the way" of the FBI probe could draw further scrutiny into Collins’s political links to the administration—critical given the president’s currently sliding approval ratings and Jackson’s use of this as a key attack line against the senator.
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