Recent polling shows the Democrat challenger Troy Jackson and the incumbent Senator Susan Collins locked in a tight race for one of Maine’s two Senate seats, as the two candidates prepare to square off in the first of four debates ahead of the November 3 election. Since Jackson entered the race in the place of Graham Platner—who dropped out in July following a sexual assault allegation, which he denies—the fifth-generation logger and former Maine Senate president has secured a lead over the incumbent senator in nearly every survey. However, more recent polls—from the New York Times and the firm co/efficient—have given Collins an edge, though most remain within their margins of error.
The senator has also narrowed Jackson’s lead on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket from over 70 percent in September to 59 percent as of Tuesday. But Tuesday evening will give both candidates a chance to tout their credentials and their opponent’s weaknesses, while addressing lingering concerns about their campaigns—Collins with the fallout from a federal corruption probe and her political proximity to Donald Trump, and Jackson facing an uphill battle to gain Mainers’ trust after less than three months in the race. Newsweek has contacted the campaigns outside of regular working hours for comment.
Jackson led Collins 51 percent to 47 percent in a Marist Poll released on Tuesday—a four-point edge on the cusp of its 3.8-percentage point margin of error. The survey of 1,505 registered voters had Jackson winning among independents—52 percent to 45 percent—with anti-Trump sentiment offering the candidate an apparent boost, given the president’s job approval rating among those polled at 40 percent approving and 59 percent disapproving. Some 44 percent of Maine voters said their ballot is "mainly a vote against President Donald Trump," while 16 percent consider it a vote for the president and 39 percent said he did not play into their choice a great deal.
While voters in this particular poll chose Jackson, a majority of 57 percent nevertheless feel that the five-term Republican will end up claiming victory in the Maine Senate race, compared to 41 percent for her opponent. Other recent polls have likewise shown a competitive race less than a month out. A CBS News poll released last week was an even split between the pair at 50 percent each.
Collins’s time in office appears an advantage for the senator, with 62 percent saying she has the "right experience" compared with Jackson’s 38 percent. These figures are flipped, however, when it comes to which candidate "will bring needed change." And a significant 10 percent of voters said they might still change their minds before the election takes place. The stakes are high for Collins and Jackson going into Tuesday's contest—offering both a chance to shape the narrative of the race and address questions Mainers may have around their candidacy.
A notable challenge for the Democrat is recognizability, given Collins is among the longest-serving U.S. senators and Jackson only entered the race on July 25. A co/efficient poll published last Wednesday found that 44 percent said they had a favorable view of Collins as a candidate, with 47 percent viewing her unfavorably and 9 percent holding no opinion. A larger 16 percent had no opinion on Jackson, whom 36 percent viewed favorably and 47 percent unfavorably.
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