Incumbent leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated conservative Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro in Sunday's presidential runoff, according to The . The deeply polarized nation returned to the polls for a second round runoff on Sunday.
Lula’s victory followed chaos at polling places after a Supreme Court justice ordered a last-minute, two-hour voting extension, a move that could face a legal challenge from Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro narrowly won the first round on Oct. 4, with 47% of the vote, to Lula's 45%, but fell short of the 50% majority required to win the election outright. The victory marks an unprecedented fourth presidential term for Lula, and a remarkable comeback victory.
The result is even more surprising given that Bolsonaro had led, albeit by tight margins, in recent polling, and Brazil had recently elected a conservative congress aligned with the Bolsonaro agenda. BRAZIL BECOMES NEXT TEST FOR LATIN AMERICA’S SURGING CONSERVATIVE MOVEMENT Earlier in the day, Lula voted in Sao Bernardo do Campo, Sao Paulo, while Bolsonaro voted in the north of Rio de Janeiro, the state he represents in the Senate. The first vote tallies came in from Brazilians living overseas, where Lula won a decisive victory in Germany, and Bolsonaro won an overwhelming victory in Japan.
BRAZIL’S RAPID ELECTION COUNT PUTS SPOTLIGHT ON VOTING SECURITY AHEAD OF US MIDTERMS While Bolsonaro performed well in his southern electoral strongholds, winning by comfortable margins in Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná, and Rio Grande do Sul, he won those states by smaller margins than in the first round. His turnout in the south was not enough to overcome Lula's famed Northeastern firewall; a reflection of the Workers Party dominance in the country's populous "Nordeste" region. Bolsonaro also turned in a disappointing performance in Minas Gerais, which geographically and politically straddles the Brazilian north/south divide.
Often referred to as the nation's quintessential bellwether state, it is fair to say that as goes Minas Gerais, so goes the nation. While Bolsonaro won Minas Gerais by 5% in the first round, in the second round it was essentially tied. Bolsonaro had received endorsements from other first round candidates: best-selling author Augusto Cury, former Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema, and former Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado.
LATIN AMERICA’S CONSERVATIVE SHIFT FACES ITS BIGGEST TEST YET IN BRAZIL ELECTION However, they were not enough to overcome the much-respected electoral machinery of the Workers Party. Lula has now appeared on the presidential ballot 7 times, winning 4 of those elections. Heading into the first round, Flavio Bolsonaro was effectively able to make the case to working-class and middle-class voters that the Lula's economic approach was driving up their cost of living.
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