Former Democratic North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper holds a double-digit lead over Republican Michael Whatley in a new poll released less than two months before Election Day in a race that could help determine which party controls the Senate. A new Elon University poll of 800 voters released Thursday found Cooper holding an 11-point lead over Whatley—49 percent to 38 percent—among likely voters, while posting an even wider margin among registered voters. The poll comes as Democrats eye a narrow path to reclaiming control of the upper chamber, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority.
Polling suggests that the North Carolina Senate race is one of the Democrats' top flip opportunities in the midterms. To take back the majority, Democrats must defend their current seats—including in two states President Donald Trump won in his 2024 White House bid—and flip four others. North Carolina has long been a closely watched battleground state despite last electing a Democratic Senator in 2008.
Trump has won the state three times, carrying it by about 1.3 percentage points over Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 and increasing that margin to roughly 3.2 points against Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024. Despite backing the GOP in 11 of the last 12 presidential elections, Democrats have had success at the statewide level, winning 8 of the last 9 governor races in the Tarheel State. Jeff Allen, Cooper for North Carolina campaign manager, told Newsweek in a Thursday email, “Roy Cooper has spent his career putting North Carolinians first, while Washington DC insider Michael Whatley spent his delivering for billionaires and special interests at the expense of the middle class.” The statement continued, “A Democrat has not won statewide federal office in North Carolina in nearly two decades and we know this race will be very close, which is why we’re building a campaign to earn every vote and make sure North Carolinians know that Roy Cooper will fight for them in the Senate." Newsweek has reached out to Whatley’s press team for comment via email on Thursday.
The North Carolina Senate race is for the seat currently held by Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who is not seeking reelection. Cooper, who served as North Carolina governor from 2017 through 2024, is seeking a return to elected office. Whatley is the former chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC) and the North Carolina Republican Party.
The race is widely viewed as one of Democrats' best pickup opportunities in 2026 and is expected to play a key role in the battle for Senate control. Among likely voters in the Elon poll, Cooper leads Whatley 49 percent to 38 percent, with 8 percent undecided. Among registered voters, Cooper's support remains unchanged at 49 percent, while Whatley's slips to 36 percent, widening the gap slightly, with 14 percent undecided or backing someone else.
The findings point to a major name-recognition advantage for Cooper. Nearly three-quarters of registered voters, 71 percent, said they had heard "a great deal" or "some" about the former governor, compared with 47 percent for Whatley. Just 4 percent said they had never heard of Cooper, while 15 percent said they had never heard of Whatley.
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