Wetter weather forecasts for the Corn Belt over the next couple weeks will likely limit buyer interest in corn (ZCZ26) and soybean (ZSX26) futures. It's very likely going to take a U.S. soybean crop weather market scare in August to reignite bullish enthusiasm in soybeans and corn. So far, weather forecasts are not indicating such.
However, a positive for the grain markets recently has been a slumping U.S. dollar index ($DXY) that Friday hit a seven-week low. Coffee Prices Decline as Colombian Coffee Exports Partially Resume Bulls Are Back in Charge of Corn Prices as a New Rally Forms Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Grain traders are also keeping an eye on weather conditions in major western European grain-growing regions, amid an extreme heat wave that is hurting the crops there.
The French corn crop is expected to decline 35% to 9.0 million MT, its lowest since at least 1980, after heat wave and drought hurt the crops, according to France's farm ministry. Corn futures did see some support last Friday as the USDA reported daily U.S. corn sales of 286,097 metric tons (MT) to Mexico. Of the total, 29,808 MT were for the 2026-27 marketing year, and 256,289 MT were for the 2027-28 marketing year.
Higher crude oil (CLU26) prices have also lifted demand for corn, with use for fuel alcohol in the month of June at 466.7 million bushels, according to the USDA, up 4.5% from the same time last year. The ethanol blend rate in U.S. gasoline also hit a record high 11.29% in May as rising oil costs increased biofuels demand. The USDA also reported last Friday morning U.S. soybean sales of 238,000 MT to China during 2026-27.
There are rumblings among traders that China is clearing out some storage and auctioning old soybean stocks to make room for more U.S. soybean purchases. Grain traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoons. The closely followed Pro Farmer annual corn and soybean crop tour in late August is coming into trader focus.
It's so far looking like good U.S. corn and soybean crops will be harvested this fall. Tensions between the U.S. and China over the war in Iran and trade issues will heighten the importance of domestic soybean crush use in keeping demand firm. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Washington, D.C. in September.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
