Cory Mills is just the latest in a string of incumbents to be ousted from Congress in a primary battle this year, but his defeat could serve as a particular warning sign for embattled Representative Max Miller. The race in Florida’s 7th Congressional District was a test of whether a scandal-plagued House Republican could survive a primary with the backing of President Donald Trump. He lost the Republican nomination to former television journalist Ryan Elijah after being hammered over multiple investigations he is facing, including an ongoing House Ethics Committee probe into allegations of sexual misconduct and campaign finance violations.
The Department of Justice is also investigating his finances. Mills has denied wrongdoing. Miller, also endorsed by Trump, is already the Republican nominee for Ohio's 7th Congressional District and refused to get out of the race before a deadline passed for him to be replaced on the Ohio ballot.
He had faced calls to drop out over domestic abuse allegations in a bitter and drawn-out custody battle with his ex-wife Emily Moreno, the daughter of Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno. Earlier in August, the House Ethics Committee said it had opened an investigation into the allegations against Miller, which he has repeatedly denied. Now, Mills’ ousting should ring alarm bells for Republicans who have been increasingly nervous about Miller’s electability and worried that he could cost the party a seat as they try to cling to their House majority in November’s midterms.
Newsweek has contacted Miller’s campaign for comment via email. The circumstances in the Florida and Ohio races are not identical. Mills was facing a Republican primary challenger, while Miller has just over two months before facing Democrat Brian Poindexter in the general election.
But Mills' loss offers a cautionary lesson. Republican voters may be loyal, but the result in Tuesday’s primary suggests there is a point where Trump’s endorsement is not enough to save a candidate plagued by controversy. The key question is whether Ohio voters, particularly Republicans, will reach a similar conclusion and reject Miller.
Costas Panagopoulos, a professor of political science at Northeastern University, said the outcome in Florida shows voters are taking allegations against politicians seriously. They are “willing to hold politicians to account,” he told Newsweek. "The circumstances in each case differ, but the Mills result in Florida does not portend well for Miller in Ohio.” Panagopoulos also said that the allegations against Miller could affect more than just the race in Ohio, adding: “Often, these things tend to cascade or snowball into a larger narrative whose impact spills over into multiple races.” Trump’s endorsement has propelled most Republican candidates to secure victories in GOP primaries, but his record has suffered some setbacks.
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