The expectation is left-hander and two-time AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, far and away the best free agent available this offseason, will sign a record contract before the collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. Barring a surprise agreement, the owners are almost certain to lock out the players at that time. Skubal is expected to sign before then.
Skubal, 30 later this month, is a Scott Boras client and Boras tends to shatter records, not beat them narrowly. There's a real chance Skubal signs a contract worth more than $400 million in the next two weeks or so. Excluding Shohei Ohtani, who is technically a pitcher but is really a two-way player, here are the largest pitching contracts in history: Something like, say, eight years at $50 million a year would give Skubal a $400 million contract that obliterates the previous pitcher records for total guarantee and average annual value.
Several big-market clubs are said to be pursuing Skubal (Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, etc.), who is a special free agent as an in-his-prime ace. Conditions are ripe for a record deal. There is also a chance Skubal goes the Valdez route, or the Bo Bichette/Kyle Tucker route, and signs a short-term contract with a high annual salary.
It might only be a small chance, but there is a chance. The Athletic reports the Dodgers prefer such an arrangement with Skubal. ESPN says Skubal has no interest in such a deal, though minds can always be changed.
With that in mind, here are the pros and cons of a high-dollar, short-term contract for Skubal. Keep in mind that such a contract is usually a three- or four-year deal with opt outs, not a straight one- or two-year contract, and Skubal wouldn't necessarily have to use the opt outs to re-enter free agency. He could leverage them into a new contract to stay with his team. 1.
Plain and simple, a short-term contract would give Skubal a chance to max out his earnings by making free agency available to him again as soon as next offseason. Go out, have a typical Skubal season in 2027, and perhaps market forces push the demand even higher than it is right now. Remember that, along with a salary cap, there could be a salary floor in the future.
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