Manchester United have been the third‑best team in the Premier League with Michael Carrick as their head coach. It is some effort for his job to be so under threat when only Arsenal (57 points) and Manchester City (56) have been more productive than United (46) during the 45-year-old’s tenure. The tally obscures pertinent facts.
United topping the Premier League during his 17‑match interim spell last season is irrelevant when they sit 16th with no win in eight games in all competitions this season. Losing narrowly against City is one thing, but three-goal defeats by Como and Bournemouth will surely spell managerial change. Carrick can point to a degree of misfortune this season.
Conceding stoppage-time equalisers to Everton and Tottenham was costly, although they also required an 89th-minute goal to avoid losing at Fulham, who were winless at the time. Opta’s expected points model suggests United have earned 3.8 points fewer than their underlying statistical performances merit in 2026-27. Only three clubs are further adrift of where they can reasonably expect to be.
Equally, United’s expected position of 10th is hardly befitting a club whose net transfer spend this summer topped all those outside the Premier League bar Real Madrid, even before we consider their annual revenue and illustrious history. Their par level remains uninspiring. If they have been a touch unlucky with results, it was almost an inevitable outcome.
United outperformed their expected points by 12.7 in Carrick’s share of 2025-26, 7.6 more than any other club. Such fortune was never going to last, as any back office paying the remotest attention to data would know. Poor recruitment in the summer increased the likelihood of a slump.
The run of results appeared as unsustainable as it has proven. Eight of United’s 12 league wins under Carrick last season were by one goal. In that time, only Napoli (nine) had more such victories in Europe’s big five leagues.
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