Six years ago, Dan Sullivan entered the final stretch of his reelection campaign with a clear polling lead, a favorable political climate, and an opponent who had never won a statewide office. Today, the Alaska Republican finds himself in a markedly different position, trailing Democrat Mary Peltola in multiple polls, and navigating a less favorable environment as he seeks a third Senate term. Polling averages compiled by RealClearPolling currently place Peltola ahead by about two points, while a new New York Times/Siena survey released Monday gave her a 7-point lead—a sharp reversal from October 2020 when the survey showed Sullivan leading independent Al Gross by eight points before he ultimately won by 13.
On Monday, Vice President JD Vance sought to boost Sullivan's campaign, appearing at a rally in Fairbanks alongside the senator. Despite current polling, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) appeared confident he would win, hitting out at allegations made by former Peltola staffers to The New York Times that she had angry outbursts and used slurs. "Mary Peltola wished a fellow Alaskan died of a botched abortion, got zero bills signed into law, pushed the far-left to keep energy production shut down and then cashed out as a Lower 48 lobbyist.
Peltola puts Alaska last and her Lower 48 donors first," NRSC Regional press secretary Nick Puglia told Newsweek in a statement Monday. Peltola's campaign pushed back on Puglia's comment, telling Newsweek that Sullivan had pushed up everyday costs for Alaskans. "Mary will win this November because Alaskans know that she’s an independent voice who will stand up to anyone – including her own party – to lower costs, take on the rigged system in DC, and put Alaska first.” Newsweek reached out to Sullivan's campaign for comment.
While polling in Alaska has historically underestimated Republican performance, Sullivan enters October in a significantly weaker position than at the same point in 2020. Six years ago, Sullivan maintained a strong lead over Gross for much of the year, per RealClearPolling. An early July 2020 survey from PPP, a Democrat-leaning pollster, showed the Republican with a 5-point lead.
That rose to 8 points in the Times/Siena poll conducted in early October. The final result saw Sullivan with 54 percent of the vote to Gross' 41.3 percent, a 12.7 percent advantage. Gross ran as an independent and had never held federal office, but Democrats endorsed him.
He emphasized his background as a doctor and fisherman rather than as a partisan politician, with much of his campaign messaging centered on his independence from both major parties. By late summer and early fall of 2020, some Democrats believed Alaska could be a surprise pickup, with Gross having raised a significant amount of money and polls showing close margins. For Sullivan, the state's longtime Republican lean helped, as did President Donald Trump's popularity.
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