Decomposing the gender gap in subjective well-being: evidence from a machine learning-based switching framework

Human well-being has received increasing attention as an indicator of individual and social health and as a consideration in public policy. Gender differences in subjective well-being (SWB), a widely accepted indicator of human well-being, have long been documented. However, explanations of these gender differences remain varied and inconclusive.

This study utilizes Gallup World Poll data comprising 1,911,212 observations from 2009 to 2022. Employing advanced machine-learning techniques within an Exogenous Switching Treatment Effect Model (ESTEM) framework, we decompose the gender gap in SWB into differences in characteristics and differences in regime-specific returns. Conditional on observed characteristics and under a common predictive regime, the model predicts higher SWB for men.

In contrast, the regime-specific returns component is associated with lower predicted well-being under the male regime. This component also increases over time, widening the estimated gender gap in SWB, while its magnitude varies across countries. The results suggest the potential relevance of institutional flexibility and reduced gender-role pressures for addressing gender disparities in human well-being.

This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20251003) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan and by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP26H02588. Jie Mi, Chao Li, Alexander Ryota Keeley, Jiaxu Zhang & Shunsuke Managi The authors declare no competing interests. This study used secondary data from the Gallup World Poll, conducted annually by Gallup, Inc. from 2005 to 2022 across all sampled countries.

Gallup obtains ethical approval for its global survey procedures through both internal and external review processes that adhere to internationally recognized research ethics standards, including the Declaration of Helsinki and the ethical guidelines of the Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences (CIOMS). All data collection is conducted in accordance with applicable national regulations for research involving human participants and the ethical principles set forth in the Belmont Report, disseminated by the U.S. National Commission for the Protection of Human Subjects of Biomedical and Behavioral Research.

The Gallup World Poll is conducted under the oversight of Gallup’s Institutional Review Board (Gallup IRB). The IRB’s framework is based on the principles of respect for persons, beneficence, and justice. Gallup upholds strict protocols to protect respondent confidentiality and anonymity throughout data collection, transfer, storage, and reporting.