The odds on the Democrats taking control of both the House and Senate have risen to new highs according to the “Dulux” version of polling guru Nate Silver’s latest 2026 Silver Bulletin midterm election model. According to the latest data from October 8, Democrats had a 74.8 percent chance of winning the Senate, the highest figure since the model began on August 5 when they were on just 56.2 percent. Similarly, the odds of the Democrats winning the House were on 93.1 percent, which is also their best performance since August 5 when they had 85.5 percent odds on taking the lower chamber.
Republicans currently enjoy a slim majority in both chambers of Congress. Winning both in November would be a major coup for the Democrats that would significantly impede President Trump’s ability to get legislation passed during the final two years of his second term. Silver’s 2026 midterm election model is named FLIPR, which stands for Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and (Expert) Ratings.
The default “Dulux” model combines public polling, weighted by perceived reliability, with a range of variables including candidate incumbency, fundraising, elected experience, scandal and party loyalty along with “expert” ratings to “account for idiosyncratic factors in each race that are not necessarily well-captured by the fundamentals.” Once the data has been collected the model is used to simulate the election at least 40,000 times before the final results are published. Published data from the model is available from August 5 to October 8. Overall, Silver’s model gives Democrats a 74.5 percent chance of winning both the House and Senate in November, while Republicans are only given a 6.7 percent chance of retaining both chambers.
Newsweek contacted the Democratic and Republican National Committees for comment on Friday via email outside of regular office hours. The Dulux version of Silver’s FLIPR model gave Democrats a 74.8 percent chance of winning the Senate at the midterms on October 8, with an average of 52.2 seats. By contrast Republicans were given a 25.3 percent chance of holding the upper chamber, and averaged out at 47.8 seats.
Notably, Democrats' chances of victory in the Senate have improved dramatically since early September when the two parties came extremely close to level pegging. On September 7 the model gave Democrats a 50.1 percent chance of winning the Senate, against 49.9 percent for the GOP. The data shows Republicans enjoyed a brief resurgence at the beginning of September reaching a 49.9 percent chance of holding the Senate on September 7 from a 43.7 percent chance on September 1.
Prior to that they remained on between 42 and 44 percent since the model starts on August 5, when they had a 43.8 percent chance of Senate victory against 56.2 percent for the Democrats. Currently, there are 53 Republican Senators in the upper house against 47 who caucus with the Democrats. Silver’s model found the Democrats are “likely” to win key Senate races in New Hampshire, Ohio, Michigan and Minnesota.
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