The 2026 midterms are on track to be the most expensive on record, driven by enthusiasm for Democratic candidates and massive contributions by Republican megadonors, especially Elon Musk. More than $15 billion has been raised since the start of 2025, according to Federal Election Commission data, and half of that has been spent so far. Ad spending on House and Senate races has topped $4 billion, with hundreds of millions of dollars more planned for the final two weeks of the election, according to AdImpact data.
After winning the White House and a narrow majority in the House and Senate in 2024, Republicans now face an electorate that has soured on President Trump's agenda amid an unpopular war in Iran, high fuel costs and rising prices. The Democratic Party as a national brand is unpopular, too. But a crop of Senate candidates in more conservative-leaning states like Iowa, Texas, Kansas and Ohio, and Democratic hopefuls in newly competitive House districts, have surged in polls and fundraising.
Despite Democrats' fundraising advantage at the candidate level, Republican outside groups — including a trio of super PACs tied to Trump's MAGA, Inc. — have outspent Democrats on the airwaves to try to paint that party as too extreme to control Congress. Here are four takeaways from the latest campaign finance filings and what they say about the sprint to Election Day. One of the more surprising developments this election cycle is the number of U.S.
Senate races that have become competitive, driven in part by Republicans being outraised by their opponents by sometimes wide margins. From July to September, the Democratic or independent candidate outraised their Republican opponent in 27 of the 35 Senate races on the ballot, posting a nearly 5-to-1 advantage in the 13 most competitive races. Texas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico's main campaign committee reported bringing in about $60 million in the third quarter, which the campaign says is a record for a Senate campaign in that period before the election.
That is also more than what any other Senate candidate has raised the entire cycle, except Democratic Sen. It's not just the longtime expensive toss-up races like Ohio, Texas and Michigan, either. In the last fundraising quarter, Kansas Democrat Adam Hamilton raised nearly $10 million into his primary campaign committee, compared to just $800,000 for incumbent Republican Sen.
Mississippi Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde Smith reported less than $700,000 in contributions, while both Republican Sens. Mike Rounds of South Dakota and Jim Risch of Idaho disclosed just under half a million dollars in third quarter receipts.
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