This year's midterm elections are only 50 days away, and polls are showing a tight race in key Senate races as Democrats and Republicans battle for control of Congress in November. Despite a challenging map, Democrats believe the Senate is in play in November, pointing to President Donald Trump’s national approval rating as a factor, which has declined in recent months amid voter frustration with the economy, cost of living and the unpopular war in Iran. In comments the White House has used in response to multiple polling inquiries, spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek: “The ultimate poll was November 5th 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda.” Ingle added that “no other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump,” arguing that Trump is “working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more.” The administration maintains that “this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect.” Historically, the president’s party tends to lose seats in Congress if he is unpopular heading into the midterm, and Democrats have been optimistic about their chances of taking control of the House of Representatives.
But the Senate is a heavier lift. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, and Democrats have few clear targets. They must win states Trump won by double digits in 2024 to flip the majority.
Some of these more conservative states appear to be competitive ahead of November, according to recent polls. Those polls have been driving up Democrats’ hopes that they could ride a blue wave to victory. Democrats have a narrow path to flip the Senate this year.
They need to flip four seats, as Vice President JD Vance would serve as the tiebreaker in a divided Senate. Democrats need to hold onto every seat they currently hold, flip two seats they view as top targets and then win two races in double-digit Trump states. Republicans are eyeing three targets in Democratic-held seats, two of which, Georgia and Michigan, backed Trump in the 2024 election after backing former President Joe Biden in 2020.
They also see a potential flip opportunity in New Hampshire, which narrowly backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. Democrats see Republican-held seats in Maine, which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by nearly 7 points, and North Carolina, which backed Trump by 3 points, as their top flip opportunities. But any other Democratic flips would require them to expand the battleground to more conservative states.
There are no other GOP-held seats up for grabs in Harris-won or single-digit Trump 2024 states, so Democrats have to compete in double-digit Trump states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas to flip the Senate. Grant Davis Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek he believed the Senate would remain in Republican control but is now “not as sure.” “The contest for Senate control is becoming increasingly competitive, largely due to what continues to come out of the White House—evidenced by the president’s extremely low approval ratings. This latest appearance of essentially a bribe by the President for a good outcome in the midterms will not help,” he said, referring to Trump’s promise to send $5,000 to Americans if Republicans hold onto the House and Senate.
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