Democrats have gained an encouraging late boost in the battle for the Senate, with new polling placing their candidates ahead in three races that could shape control of the chamber. A new Data for Progress survey gives Troy Jackson a 50 percent to 45 percent lead in Maine, Abdul El-Sayed a 50 percent to 46 percent edge in Michigan, and James Talarico a 49 percent to 45 percent advantage in Texas. Polling captures opinion during a specific period rather than predicting an election result.
Each survey carries a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, meaning the apparent Senate leads should be treated as narrow rather than decisive. Voters in those states face sharply contrasting choices, although each Democratic advantage is close enough to the survey’s margin of error that the races remain competitive. Newsweek emailed the Republican and Democratic campaigns in each of these three Senate races requesting further comment on Saturday morning.
The three-state picture offers Democrats an encouraging final-week snapshot in contests with different political dynamics: a challenge to a longtime incumbent, an open-seat race and a bid to break through in Republican-leaning Texas. Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson is trying to unseat Republican Senator Susan Collins, who is seeking a sixth term. Seventy-eight percent of decided respondents said they were definitely supporting their chosen Senate candidate, while 14 percent described their choice as probable and 8 percent were still considering their options.
The statewide survey was conducted from October 23 to 27 among 652 likely voters using SMS, live callers and web panels. Its sample was weighted by demographic and political characteristics. In the governor’s contest, former Maine House Speaker Hannah Pingree receives 49 percent, compared with 37 percent for lawyer Robert Charles and 7 percent for independent Rick Bennett; another 6 percent are unsure or refused to answer.
Former Detroit Health Department executive director Abdul El-Sayed is running against former Republican Representative Mike Rogers for a seat without an incumbent. Minor-party candidates register no more than 1 percent apiece, while 3 percent of respondents remain undecided or declined to state a preference. Among those backing a candidate, 76 percent describe their support as definite.
Data for Progress surveyed 622 likely Michigan voters from October 23 to 25 through SMS, live-caller interviews and web panels. The sample was weighted to reflect the anticipated electorate. Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson takes 52 percent in the governor’s race, against 43 percent for Republican Representative John James; the remaining named contenders each attract 1 percent or less.
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