Voters are casting their ballots in 10 Senate contests where Democrats lead, testing whether dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and Republican control of Washington translates into electoral losses. AtlasIntel’s final surveys show Democratic advantages ranging from 2.4 points in Minnesota to 14.9 points in North Carolina, although several races remain close enough for turnout or polling error to alter the outcome. Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek that midterms are often “referenda on incumbent party performance,” with voters using them to judge a president’s first two years.
That dynamic may be sharper because Republicans control the federal government. He said a significant segment now appears to have defected from Republican support, although the final scale of any movement will only become clear once votes are counted. White House spokesman Davis Ingle called Trump the Republican Party’s “best messenger” and “unmatched motivator,” arguing that his record and MAGA coalition would help the GOP retain its congressional majorities in a previous statement.
Newsweek contacted the White House on Tuesday morning via email for further comment. Midterm elections have historically presented problems for the president’s party because they give dissatisfied voters an opportunity to impose a check on the White House. Republicans entered Election Day holding a 53-45 Senate majority, with two independents caucusing with Democrats.
A total of 33 regular Senate elections and two special contests are taking place, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats to take control, provided they hold all their existing seats. AtlasIntel questioned likely voters from October 28 to November 1. Each race contained different sample sizes and margins of error.
Panagopoulos cautioned that determining who will participate in the midterm elections is “as much an art as it is a science,” because pollsters use different likely-voter models. AtlasIntel says its final 2024 presidential polling produced the most precise national estimate and correctly mapped the Electoral College outcome. The company attributed that performance to its digital recruitment and statistical-calibration system.
Former two-term North Carolina governor Roy Cooper, who previously served four terms as state attorney general, led Republican Michael Whatley by 56.4 percent to 41.5 percent. Whatley, an attorney and former North Carolina GOP chair, is seeking elected office after a career in party leadership. The poll questioned 1,459 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.
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