Democrats lead Republicans by 11 points on the congressional ballot, 53 percent to 42 percent, in an Emerson College poll released 40 days before the midterms. The result matches a previous series high first reached in Emerson’s July poll. That advantage places the GOP in a difficult national environment as voters prepare to decide control of Congress.
Republican candidates face particular pressure among independents and Hispanic voters, two groups that backed President Donald Trump more strongly in 2024. Newsweek reached out to the Republican National Committee and the White House for comment via email on Thursday morning. Democrats have moved from a tie in Emerson’s polling in August 2025 to matching their largest lead of the series.
Yet a generic ballot measures the national mood, not the individual contests that will determine the House and Senate. The latest Emerson College Polling national survey questioned 1,000 likely U.S. voters on September 21 and 22. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Democratic support stands at 53 percent, equaling the series high first reached in July. Republican support is at 42 percent, producing an 11-point gap. Democrats led by one point in September 2025, four points the following month and six points by December.
Their advantage reached eight points in January, briefly narrowed to seven in March and then remained at between nine and 11 points from April onward. August brought a modest Republican improvement, with the Democratic lead falling to eight points, 51 percent to 43 percent. September reversed that movement.
"While the generic ballot test doesn’t capture nuances of individual races, it’s an important metric to gauge the magnitude of a potential Democratic wave," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a press release. The coalition behind the Democratic margin matters as much as its size. Independents favor Democrats by 29 points, while Hispanic voters give the party a 33-point advantage.
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