Even if you don't fill your own vehicle with diesel, its price has a big impact on your life. While gasoline is mainly a consumer fuel for cars, diesel powers much of the wider economy, from freight transport and farming equipment to construction and industry. That is why diesel shortages or price shocks can have a bigger economic impact than higher gasoline prices by raising the cost of moving goods and operating heavy machinery.
As businesses become strained, these higher energy costs will be passed on to consumers and add to a growing cost-of-living crisis and inflation. So what's driving global diesel prices higher? The United States and China are among the world's largest diesel producers.
China keeps much of it for domestic use, leaving the US as the world's biggest diesel exporter. Still, the weekly average price of a gallon of diesel is now $6.52 (€5.73) in the country, according to the US Energy Information Administration, a big increase from a year ago when it averaged $3.74 per gallon or two years ago when it averaged $3.53 a gallon. President Donald Trump recently called on Ukraine's president to stop targeting oil refineries in Russia "because he's causing a shortage of diesel." Russia is one of the world's other biggest diesel suppliers.
But since 2022, some of its oilrefineries have been attacked as many as 15 times, according to the International Energy Agency. The agency estimates that diesel production in Russia is down by nearly 30% from 2025 levels. Moscow has now restricted diesel exports to protect domestic supplies.
As Russian production declined, the US went into high gear to help make up the difference, but even this was not enough. And on September 22, Trump announced that his administration was also considering a diesel export ban. Such a move is likely an attempt to bring down domestic prices ahead of the November midterm elections since energy prices and affordability have become important campaign issues.
Leading energy lobby groups have come out against such a plan, and many industry experts think a ban would be slow to bring down prices or could backfire by pushing US refiners to reduce production, push up prices, or both. For Europe, more expensive diesel could have dramatic consequences. "Decades of policy incentives, such as tax advantages, left Europe's vehicle fleet far more diesel-heavy than regions like the US," said Georg Zachmann, a senior fellow at Brussels-based Bruegel think tank.
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