Chubby Checker asked the pertinent question way back in 1963: how low can you go? President Donald Trump is setting that limbo bar lower and lower with his second-term approval ratings. The Republican is now net negative on all 12 issues that Strength in Numbers and Verasight track in their surveys.
Border security, his last positive rating, fell from plus one in July to minus five. Time to build a bigger wall, maybe. On prices, a key issue that put him back in the White House and is setting the tone for the November midterms, Trump sits at minus 48 percent.
Overall, the August 14-19 survey of 1,514 adults, margin of error 2.6 points, put Trump’s net approval at minus 23 percent. Lower that bar again, Chubby: a /Ipsos poll conducted August 21-24 put Trump on net at minus 32 percent. Republicans who wave those figures away are dismissing one of the better-known warning signals in midterm politics.
But presidential approval is a blunt instrument for forecasting a House election. It’s a trap that complacent opponents often fall into. Pew Research Center’s July survey captures what a topline alone cannot.
Among registered voters, the 12 percent who disapprove of Trump, but not strongly, split 31 percent Republican to 31 percent Democratic on the House ballot, with 28 percent unsure. These voters register disapproval of the president, then divide evenly between the parties. Trump’s own soft supporters are even more rigidly Republican.
The 11 percent who approve not so strongly back Republicans by a vast 73 to 2. That group is genuinely divided—and genuinely small. Splitting evenly, it hands each party roughly four points of the electorate.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
