President Donald Trump’s net approval rating has fallen in seven of eight states that Ontario Premier Doug Ford urged Canada to target with additional tariffs because of their political importance to the president’s base, according to Civiqs tracking. The change came between August 22, when trade negotiations between the United States and Canada collapsed and 50 percent American tariffs took effect on roughly $20 billion of Canadian imports, and September 16. Washington and Ottawa’s deepening trade dispute could put pressure on American producers shortly before the midterm elections.
Voters, exporters and Republican candidates face the clearest risks in places where economic ties to Canada collide with weakening support for the president. While the movement does not establish that the U.S.-Canada trade war caused voters to turn against the president, it gives fresh relevance to Ford’s explicitly political argument that Canada should direct economic pressure toward states closely connected to the administration’s electoral base rather than treating retaliation as a purely nationwide trade measure. The development also lands amid a potentially historic shift in Canada’s foreign economic strategy.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday that she wanted to work with Prime Minister Mark Carney on opening the door for Canada to deepen trade ties with the Brussels bloc. Carney has said Canada is not seeking full European Union membership, instead describing the objective as a “unique alliance” with Europe. Presidential approval can shape the political environment in which congressional candidates run, particularly when voters connect federal policy with household costs or local industries.
Civiqs does not ask what caused each state’s movement, so the figures cannot prove that the trade fight drove the declines. Civiqs’ rolling tracker of registered voters covers Trump’s second term from January 20, 2025 and includes 130,338 responses through September 15, 2026. Arkansas still gave the president a positive rating, but its cushion narrowed from 12 points on August 22 to 7 points in the latest reading.
Approval slipped from 53 percent to 50 percent as disapproval rose from 41 percent to 43 percent. Florida experienced the same five-point net decline from a weaker starting position. Its rating fell from -9 to -14, with 40 percent approving and 54 percent disapproving.
Montana lost four points, changing from a +4 to 0 as approval and disapproval converged at 46 percent apiece. Three states shifted against Trump by smaller margins. Alabama fell from +7 to +4, Wisconsin moved from -16 to -19, and both Missouri and Texas deteriorated by 2 points.
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