President Donald Trump’s net approval has improved by 19 points among Black respondents and 20 points among Hispanic respondents across three consecutive Economist/YouGov polls conducted between September 18 and October 5. Across the Economist/YouGov surveys reviewed by Newsweek: It raises the possibility that parts of the coalition behind his 2024 victory may be stabilizing ahead of the midterms. Republican and Democratic campaigns in Georgia, Texas and Florida will be watching for signs that the national pattern is emerging within their demographically diverse electorates.
However, national demographic findings cannot establish that the same movement is occurring in any individual state. Finn said the movement should be viewed against a broader political environment that may still be unfavorable to the president. Richard Johnson, a senior lecturer in U.S. politics and policy at Queen Mary University of London, said targeted Republican media and grassroots campaigning among some Black and Hispanic voters could be producing results.
He also suggested the figures might represent a “gentle recovery” among relatively conservative voters motivated by “negative partisanship” when presented with Democratic candidates as the alternative. The White House argued that the polling reflected the strength of Trump’s political coalition and his ability to communicate with its voters. Ingle credited the administration’s record on taxes, prescription-drug costs, immigration, crime, energy and private-sector employment, adding that Trump was committed to preserving Republican control of Congress.
He called the president the party’s “best messenger” and “unmatched motivator,” framing the midterms as a choice between Trump’s agenda and Democratic policies. Trump’s return to the White House was helped by gains among Hispanic voters and parts of the Black electorate, challenging assumptions about the durability of Democrats’ demographic advantages. More recent signs of erosion made those advances look vulnerable, but the latest figures point in the opposite direction.
In the September 18-to-21 poll of 1,401 U.S. registered voters, Trump had a net approval rating (those who approve minus those who disapprove) of -15 among White respondents, -84 among Black respondents and -37 among Hispanic respondents. The survey’s margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points after weighting. The September 25-to-28 poll, based on 1,429 registered voters, put the corresponding figures at -16, -71 and -26.
Its margin of sampling error was also plus or minus 3.4 points, adjusted for weighting. By the October 2-to-5 survey of 1,381 registered voters, Trump stood at -15 among White respondents, -65 among Black respondents and -17 among Hispanic respondents. That poll carried the same stated error margin.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
