President Donald Trump’s net approval rating in the Midwest fell five points in a month as his national disapproval reached a second-term high in Emerson College Polling’s series. It comes as Republican candidates in pivotal U.S. Senate races confront rural anger over fuel costs, the Iran war and a beef-import policy opposed by some cattle producers.
Emerson's September survey found the Iran conflict, jobs and tariff policy were voters’ highest-ranked considerations when choosing a midterm candidate, with voters in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan and Ohio possibly determining whether regional dissatisfaction with Trump becomes a wider problem for the GOP. Trump-endorsed Iowa Republican Ashley Hinson has opposed increased beef imports and called for the Iran war to end while running for an open Senate seat. White House spokesman Davis Ingle previously told Newsweek that the 2024 election was the “ultimate poll,” saying nearly 80 million Americans had endorsed Donald Trump’s agenda.
Ingle said the president had already made “historic progress” on jobs, inflation and housing affordability, and argued that further results would emerge as his policies took effect. Newsweek contacted the White House via email for further comment on Friday morning. Trump carried Iowa, Kansas and Ohio in 2024, while Michigan was closely contested, making any weakening across the region politically significant.
Emerson’s August figures showed Trump with 43 percent approval and 52 percent disapproval among Midwestern likely voters, giving him a net rating (those who approve minus those who disapprove) of -9. By September, approval had edged down to 42 percent while disapproval rose to 56 percent. That widened his regional deficit to -14 points.
Rising opposition, rather than a large-scale loss of support, produced most of the movement. Because the Midwest is a regional subset of each national poll, however, its sample is smaller and has a wider credibility interval than the survey as a whole. The change should therefore be treated as a warning signal rather than definitive evidence of a durable swing.
The regional result follows the national trend. Emerson’s September poll put Trump at 39 percent approval and 58 percent disapproval, leaving him 19 points underwater. Disapproval was the highest Emerson had recorded during his second term, while approval matched the low first reached in May.
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