Global crude oil production is expected to fall significantly in 2026 before staging a strong recovery next year, according to the latest forecasts from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA's October Short-Term Energy Outlook projects global crude oil production at an average of 75.40 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, down from 79.09 million bpd in 2025. That would represent a decline of 3.69 million bpd, or approximately 4.7%, year on year.
The agency expects the downturn to be followed by a substantial recovery in 2027, when global production is forecast to average 81.50 million bpd — 6.10 million bpd, or around 8.1%, above the projected 2026 level. The EIA expects considerable fluctuations in production during 2026. Global crude output is projected at 77.33 million bpd in the first quarter before dropping to 71.57 million bpd in the second quarter, a decline of 5.76 million bpd.
Production is then forecast to recover to 75.69 million bpd in the third quarter and 77.02 million bpd in the fourth. The recovery is expected to accelerate during 2027. Global production is forecast at 79.60 million bpd in the first quarter, rising to 81.30 million bpd in the second, 82.20 million bpd in the third and 82.86 million bpd in the final quarter.
OPEC and OPEC+ output expected to recover The EIA projects crude oil production by OPEC countries at 20.44 million bpd in 2026, compared with 24.63 million bpd in 2025. Output is then expected to recover to 24.42 million bpd in 2027. A similar pattern is projected for the wider OPEC+ grouping.
Production is forecast to decline from 33.33 million bpd in 2025 to 29.54 million bpd in 2026 before climbing to 33.38 million bpd next year. The United States, meanwhile, is expected to follow a different trajectory. US crude oil production is projected to increase from 13.66 million bpd in 2025 to 13.87 million bpd in 2026 and 14.38 million bpd in 2027.
Production from countries outside OPEC+ excluding the United States is forecast at 31.90 million bpd this year and 33.81 million bpd in 2027. According to the EIA data, OPEC+ crude oil production capacity is projected to average 20.87 million bpd in 2026 and 26.07 million bpd in 2027, while excess production capacity is estimated at 440,000 bpd and 1.65 million bpd, respectively. Azerbaijan produces less oil but earns more from exports The global projections come as Azerbaijan records declining domestic crude oil production in 2026.
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