A new hurricane forecast is lowering expectations for overall activity in the Atlantic as the peak of the season approaches, but forecasters warn that the threat to the U.S. is far from over. AccuWeather now expects eight to 11 named storms, three to four hurricanes and one to two major ones during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, down from its earlier forecast in March of 11 to 16 named storms and in July of 8 to 14 named storms. Despite the downgrade, the forecast continues to call for three to five direct U.S. impacts.
The change comes as a rapidly strengthening El Niño becomes an increasingly dominant factor in the forecast. El Niño develops in the Pacific but can influence weather patterns across the Atlantic, where it typically increases wind shear—disruptive winds that can make it harder for tropical systems to form and strengthen. AccuWeather says there is now a growing chance that this could become one of the strongest El Niño events on record, giving forecasters greater confidence in lowering the overall storm count.
Still, the lower storm forecast does not mean the U.S. is out of the woods. AccuWeather identifies the northern and eastern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas as areas facing a higher-than-historical-average risk of direct impacts, while the northeastern Caribbean also remains at elevated risk. And everyone is underestimating the impact it will have.
This El Nino is unprecedented. And thus we should expect unprecedented impacts." Berardelli added in part, "I expect tropical system numbers to be below most forecasts and it will likely [be] one of the slowest seasons we have seen in years if not decades. We will still have storms.
Peak season is still ahead of us in late August through September. But storms will struggle to develop and struggle to intensity due to near record wind shear in parts of the Atlantic, due to El Nino. I don't expect the wind shear to weaken very much." The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 30.
The Atlantic is already running behind several historical benchmarks. As of August 19, three tropical storms have formed this year—Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal—while the average date for the first Atlantic hurricane is August 11 and the average date for the fourth named storm is August 15, AccuWeather says. The peak of the season comes around September 10, meaning the most active part of the season is still ahead, the forecaster notes.
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