Three tropical systems are active in the Pacific this week while the Atlantic sits without a named storm, a contrast meteorologists say reflects the growing influence of this year's powerful El Niño. Hurricanes Karina and Lowell and Tropical Storm Marie are all active across the Pacific basin. Meanwhile, Edouard weakened to a tropical depression and moved inland, leaving the Atlantic without a named tropical cyclone.
"There are currently three systems in the Pacific, and zero in the Atlantic," NOAA meteorologist Erica Grow Cei told Newsweek. "El Niño tends to favor increased tropical activity in the Pacific basin and reduced tropical activity in the Atlantic, so the current activity aligns with expectations during El Niño." The imbalance between the two basins comes as forecasters monitor one of the strongest El Niño events in years, a climate pattern that experts say is helping fuel Pacific storm activity while suppressing hurricane formation across much of the Atlantic. As of Wednesday, two hurricanes and one tropical storm are active in the Pacific basin.
Hurricanes Karina and Lowell both reached Category 4 strength, while Tropical Storm Marie is tracking west of Mexico and is expected to strengthen further over the coming days. The Atlantic, by contrast, had no named storms after Edouard weakened to a tropical depression and moved inland. Meteorologists have spent months warning that El Niño would likely increase activity in the eastern and central Pacific, and experts say the current setup is unfolding largely as expected.
"There's a very strong correlation between El Niño years and more active eastern and central Pacific hurricane seasons," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek. "We were expecting this from the beginning of the hurricane season." El Niño is associated with warmer-than-average waters across parts of the tropical Pacific. Those warmer waters, combined with generally more favorable atmospheric conditions and lower wind shear, can help tropical systems organize and intensify.
"The research is very, very conclusive on that," DaSilva said. While the sight of multiple tropical cyclones occupying the Pacific simultaneously has drawn attention, DaSilva said it is not unprecedented during strong El Niño years. "It has happened before that we've seen multiple major hurricanes in the Pacific basin during El Niño years," he said.
"I wouldn't say I'm shocked by this." The current cluster remains notable, however. Karina and Lowell both reached major hurricane status, while Marie is forecast to strengthen as it continues moving across the eastern Pacific. The Pacific's busy season has been mirrored by an unusually slow Atlantic.
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