This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: El Niño is firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, with major impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Forecasts from WMO's Global Producing Centres indicate a nearly 100% likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027.
This is the first time that a WMO El Niño/La Niña Update has been so unequivocal, reflecting the strong agreement within WMO's extensive network. Fueled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Niño is expected to strengthen further during the coming months to a very strong intensity before peaking toward the end of this year, with climate impacts continuing well into 2027. "El Niño is being supersized before our eyes.
Science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people.
We must win that race," said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. "El Niño in Spanish means a boy child—but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world. We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
"This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response. Never before in the 50-year history of the World Meteorological Organization have we launched such a major mobilization with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services that are on the front line of delivering the forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods," she said. "WMO is committed to working closely with partners across the United Nations and the humanitarian system to provide the climate intelligence and insights needed to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water resources," she said.
"We have no time to lose." Sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the region at the heart of El Niño, are already well above average—one of the telltale signs of El Niño—and are continuing to rise. The widely used Niño 3.4 index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, has strengthened markedly from an average of +1.5°C above normal during May–July 2026 to +2.0°C above normal in July. Weekly values subsequently increased further between late July and mid-August, ranging from approximately +2.2°C to +2.6°C above average, indicating continued intensification.
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