Anchovies are an unlikely bellwether for a building climatic event, but their disappearance from the coast of South America is heralding one of the biggest El Ninos in living memory. These small fish usually live in colossal shoals along the Pacific coast of South America, feeding in the cold, nutrient-rich waters. Fishermen in Peru and Chile eagerly await the fishing season every year, but every now and then, it does not come as planned.
This is one of those years. Some years the easterly trade winds in the Pacific weaken or even reverse. The trigger for this remains uncertain, but it causes a warm ocean current to flow east to the coast of South America.
This replaces the nutrient-rich cold water, causing the anchovies to disappear. Because the warm waters arrive around Christmas time, Peruvian fishermen named the phenomenon El Nino de Navidad (The Christmas Child). The impact of El Nino, a natural weather pattern, spreads much further than South America, and can bring drought or floods to millions in affected areas.
This year it comes supercharged by climate change, which is worrying many scientists, governments and aid workers. Stephanie Roe, lead climate scientist with the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), told Al Jazeera that this “super El Nino” is a stark reminder of how climate change can intensify pressures on both people and the natural world. As it develops in the Pacific, this year’s El Nino is combining with an ongoing, massive marine heatwave, further adding to the impacts of human-induced global warming.
Its effects will be felt through food systems and biodiversity, impacting the livelihoods of fishermen and farmers, and the billions around the world reliant on the agricultural industry for their food. El Nino’s development is being closely monitored from both space and sea, using satellites and a network of buoys. The devices in the Pacific Ocean continuously transmit data on ocean temperatures, currents and winds, helping scientists assess how powerful the event could become.
Indications currently suggest the 2026-27 El Nino could be the strongest on record. Research by the Met Office, the United Kingdom’s national weather and climate service, shows that a typical El Nino episode leads to temperature rises of between 1 and 2 degrees Celsius in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. But projections now indicate that when El Nino fully bites in late 2026 or early 2027, temperatures could spike by 3C.
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