This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: The appeal of soccer matches to spectators is a key factor in the success of professional sports leagues. League officials therefore seek to make competitions as interesting as possible.
But how can the appeal of matches and competitions be measured? It's widely believed that the smaller the performance gap between teams and the harder it is to predict a match's outcome, the more appealing the match is. Researchers from the University of Tübingen and the University of Zurich collaborated to investigate whether the entertainment value of soccer matches can be explained by the predictability of results.
To do so, they analyzed matches from the Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A and Ligue 1. They found that entertainment value can be better assessed by considering two aspects of the experience rather than a single metric: Suspense and surprise contribute to a match's appeal but often vary in their impact. The study was published in the European Journal of Operational Research.
"In sports economics, it is often assumed that greater uncertainty about a match's outcome automatically makes competitions more appealing," says Professor Tim Pawlowski of the Institute of Sports Science at the University of Tübingen. "However, the empirical findings on this topic are inconsistent. So, we wanted to gain a better understanding of what determines the entertainment value of soccer games, in the moment and over time." Previous studies show that suspense and surprise are closely linked to consumer interest.
The researchers therefore used these two measures for their study. In this regard, a match is considered suspenseful when multiple outcomes seem possible during play and it remains unclear for as long as possible which outcome it will be. Surprise, on the other hand, describes an unexpected event, such as an underdog taking the lead.
To evaluate suspense and surprise in real soccer matches, the researchers developed a benchmark. To do so, they simulated theoretically balanced matches, with both teams equally strong and differing only in home-field advantage. From these simulations, the researchers drew reference values indicating how much suspense and surprise can be expected in a balanced contest.
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