The formation of a new armed alliance seeking to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed follows a pattern that has plagued Ethiopia – an empire of many nations and nationalities still in the making – for decades. Those in power leave little space for peaceful political struggle; the winner takes it all, so those who feel disadvantaged take up arms to change the status quo. Actors and alliances change over time, but violence remains the only constant.
The civil war in parts of Oromia has raged since Abiy took power in 2018, while the conflict in the Amhara region has raged since 2023. In Tigray, the Pretoria agreement was never fully implemented. Although large-scale war had not resumed, the region had been under siege since a faction of the TPLF took power and escalated its confrontation with the federal government.
Until the latest escalation, Abiy’s government had largely been content to control the centre of power while confronting rebels with drones and ground forces. The government held national elections despite voting not taking place in Tigray and several other districts. It formed the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission in 2021, which concluded a national conference of about 4,000 participants in August, despite the absence of armed groups and other key opposition organisations.
At the same time, the government has continued to pursue major development projects. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was in Djibouti on September 24 for the launch of the Ethiopia-Djibouti petroleum infrastructure project. The newly elected parliament is due to open on October 5, when a new federal government will be constituted.
The Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, announced on September 20, was not a surprise. It followed several months of coordination meetings among the groups, held in the presence of military and security representatives from Eritrea and Sudan. It brings together the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and four movements from the Somali, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz regions.
Despite the OLA’s participation, Oromo organisations and elites are divided in their support for the alliance. The alliance aims to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and establish an inclusive transition. Three of the seven organisations – the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Afar National Unity Revolutionary Front (ANURF) – have particular strategic importance.
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