This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: The European Union has committed to achieving climate neutrality by 2050, a process that will require rapid and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions across all economic sectors. Industry plays a central role in this transition: In 2021, the EU-27 industrial sector emitted approximately 600 million tonnes of CO₂, accounting for around one-fifth of total EU greenhouse gas emissions.
Many existing industrial processes remain incompatible with deep decarbonization pathways, especially in sectors such as iron and steel, cement, chemicals and plastics. "Two large political fights are colliding here: keeping European heavy industry competitive while cutting industrial emissions. Making factories carbon-neutral often makes their products pricier," explains CMCC researcher Alice Di Bella, lead author of a new study titled "Decarbonization without deindustrialization: Assessing future pathways for European industry." The findings are published in the journal Cell Reports Sustainability.
The study is among the first to model, in detail, whether Europe can achieve both objectives—decarbonization and keeping EU industry alive—at the same time. It addresses solutions such as switching to electricity and green hydrogen and moving factories to sunnier or windier parts of Europe (such as Spain or Nordic countries). The results show that industrial decarbonization in Europe is technically feasible, with electrification playing a central role.
However, international cost competitiveness is highly sensitive to policy choices and peaks during the investment-intensive phase of the transition. "This study quantifies this tension and provides a solution. Europe should be practical about its capacity to expand its heavy industry.
It should prioritize decarbonization and the retention of existing industrial capacity, supported by targeted, time-limited public support and smart use of green imports, rather than pursuing broad-scale expansion of energy-intensive production," says Professor Massimo Tavoni, a co-author of the study and institute director at CMCC. "The best strategy is to import semi-finished green materials—such as iron that is partially processed abroad—and perform the final manufacturing step in Europe. This keeps jobs and know-how in Europe while cutting costs by up to 80 billion euros per year compared to producing everything domestically," says Di Bella.
Whereas most previous studies either modeled the whole European energy system without much industry detail or modeled specific industries in isolation without connecting them to the wider energy system, this paper provides a picture of five of the most energy- and emission-intensive sectors (steel, cement, ammonia, methanol, plastics) integrated into a model of the full European energy system. It also explicitly tests real policy options such as relocating factories, importing green materials and the impacts of subsidies. "Decarbonizing industry is possible and has been proven by many science-based studies," says Tavoni.
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