Those were the figures for European natural gas prices, which have approached per thousand cubic metres after experiencing a sharp weekly increase. Now that I have your attention, the precise figure was $995.08, to be exact, for the sake of our sensitive economists. This is the price per thousand cubic metres of gas in the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, the main market in Europe, registered on October 14.
It is the record high since December 2022, when the latest energy crisis hit, and marks an increase by 10.67% for the week despite a decline by 0.68% for the day. In the case of a state that exported 12.7 billion cubic metres of gas in the first six months of the year, most of it to Europe, one might be inclined to see the number as an opportunity. EU storage stands at roughly 73% full, according to The Wall Street Journal, against a five-year average of 89%.
Germany, the bloc's largest consumer, is closer to 60%. Brussels has quietly relaxed its mandatory winter filling target from 90% to 80%, an admission of how tight the autumn has been. Well, the cause, honestly, lies mostly beyond Europe's borders.
With the Strait of Hormuz blocked by the war involving Iran and following an attack by Iran that damaged Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility, there has been very little output of LNG coming out of the Persian Gulf region. It appears that LNG prices in North Asia have almost tripled since the onset of the conflict, leaving Europe to battle it out with Japan, Korea, and China for every cargo. Morningstar has stated that should winter prove to be particularly cold, the price range will reach €90 to €120 per megawatt hour compared to €86 to €87 currently.
However, not everyone is bearish on the other side of that. Citi, noting stronger-than-expected injections and industrial demand destruction, keeps a fourth-quarter base case of €56, well below futures. The spread between forecasters is itself part of the story.
The position of Azerbaijan seems perfect for making a profit out of this development. As noted by the Ministry of Energy of Azerbaijan, 25.4 billion cubic metres of gas was produced in the country within the first six months of 2026, with the export volumes being equal to half of this amount, i.e. 12.7 billion cubic metres of gas. Most of this gas is carried by the Southern Gas Corridor to the west, with the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline having gained 1.2 billion cubic metres a year in its capacity in January.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
