BRUSSELS — Top European officials are increasingly alarmed that Russia could stage drone or missile attacks against NATO countries as Moscow steps up its hybrid campaign across the continent. Germany is preparing hospitals for a possible conflict, Lithuania has updated evacuation plans and NATO troops are exercising in the Baltic region, while Belarusian forces have staged large maneuvers near Lithuania. That comes after numerous Russian violations of NATO airspace, increased cyberattacks, and an intensified Russian missile and drone campaign that is pounding Ukrainian cities and hitting targets close to Poland.
On Thursday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned Moscow could send drones or missiles into the territory of NATO countries supporting Ukraine in “the next few months.” French President Emmanuel Macron summoned party leaders and 2027 presidential candidates for an emergency meeting on Friday to talk about Ukraine, Iran and the growing energy crisis. He called Tusk’s warnings “sound and well-documented” as he announced a new critical infrastructure protection plan, adding: “In recent weeks … the Russian hybrid threat against Europeans and France has intensified.” Guillaume Lacroix, leader of the Radical Party of the Left, left the meeting saying: “At the age of 50, I have rarely felt such vertigo.” “It is no coincidence that the Polish prime minister is speaking out so strongly,” Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten said Friday. Moscow is also ramping up its bellicose rhetoric ahead of Russia's legislative election this weekend that is widely expected to keep President Vladimir Putin's United Russia party in power.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov this week warned Europe it would face a “very short” war if NATO allies attempted to attack the country. But “we are monitoring closely,” they added. On Friday, German and Swedish forces carried out joint exercises near the strategic Swedish island of Gotland, just weeks after NATO allies carried out unannounced exercises near the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
In recent weeks, NATO jets shot down a Russian drone over Lithuania, a Russian ship fired flares at a Danish military helicopter and Germany blamed an attempted drone attack at Leipzig airport on a suspected Russian spy. U.S. intelligence reports in August warned that Moscow was planning a limited assault on a NATO country in the coming years. CIA Director John Ratcliffe warned Russian officials in Moscow late last month not to escalate conflict with NATO allies, in particular Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, in response to Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Yet it remains unclear whether the latest warnings are based on fresh intelligence. On Friday, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said Vilnius had “the same intelligence” as Tusk “about a possible foreign-flag operation” but suggested that dated back to July. Allies have not formally been briefed on any new intelligence inside NATO, according to two alliance diplomats, and NATO has so far not changed its threat assessment.
A senior NATO military official said that Russia may be lashing out because of its difficulties in defeating Ukraine. A senior NATO official said the real number was “easily 200 plus” not counting cyberattacks — of which there are “thousands” each month against the military alliance’s Brussels headquarters alone.
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