After a year marked by extreme heat and war sending fuel prices skywards, British travel executives hoped for solace in Madeira’s benign subtropical climate, separated by hundreds of miles of blue sea from the overtourism protests and six-hour EU-entry queues seen on the Portuguese mainland. As bosses admitted, holidays will be ever less affordable, AI is coming for their jobs, and the visitable world is shrinking – not least those parts where tourists remain welcome. Some of the bigger anxieties in spring, such as widespread border chaos and planes running out of fuel, have not come to pass; others now appear chronic issues.
New supplies of jet fuel, a major concern after the US first attacked Iran in February, have been established – but the cost is staying far higher for longer than most expected. Tui and airlines such as easyJet and Ryanair escaped the worst immediate impact by having secured much of their 2026 fuel supply at a fixed price. But the latter airlines are now slashing capacity for winter.
But airlines are going to be less and less hedged and prices are going to go up,” Swanson added. The oil price impact goes beyond jet fuel, said Mark Tanzer, the chief executive of Abta: “The bigger worry is the squeeze on household incomes that’s going to come through their domestic costs. It will be a much tighter market.” Perhaps surprisingly, numbers have held up – but customers have been leaving it ever later to book, he said, whether in search of a deal or because of uncertainty from disruption, war or weather.
Despite the intense heat, mass travel firms are clear that the template has not changed: most customers still want a hot holiday, in summer, on the beach. Garry Wilson, the chief executive of easyJet Holidays, said: “Will there be long-term effects on demand? But in the short-term, no, we don’t see it.” Growing “shoulder season” travel outside the school holidays for those who can, including city breaks, are driven by price more than climate, several people suggest.
And talk of “coolcations” or people turning towards northern climes cuts little ice here. Swanson said: “We didn’t get the interest and take-up. People were expecting it to be hot and were happy to go there, and we’re not seeing any change in demand.
Brits like a warm holiday – if it’s got a pool and air-conditioning, that works for them.” Neither does Wilson see many heading north. Citing easyJet destinations such as Tromsø in Norway or Malmö in Sweden, he said: “They’re all very nice to launch, but we send more customers to Majorca in a week than those in a year.” Outbound holidays prospered in the heatwave, he suggested. Who knows where the temperature’s going to go in the next few years?” More people could get priced out.
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