This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: Climate change is increasing the likelihood and intensity of extreme rainfall, putting China's agricultural land at growing risk of flooding, disruption and damage, according to new research led by Dr. Haoyu Hu from the University of Manchester.
The study mapped extreme precipitation across China between 2000 and 2023, combining detailed rainfall data with information on cropland and transport networks. Its findings come as China has experienced a series of severe flooding and extreme rainfall events this year. In July alone, more than 16 million people were affected by natural disasters across the country, with flooding and geological disasters among the main causes.
Earlier this month, Typhoon Saudel brought torrential rainfall and flooding to several southern and eastern provinces, with more than 400 mm of rain recorded in 24 hours in parts of Fujian. Scientists have also found evidence that human-induced climate change has already intensified extreme precipitation across China, while research published this year found that climate-related changes are increasing the risk of extreme rainfall events in northern China. The research shows that exposure to extreme precipitation varies substantially across China, with southwest China remaining particularly vulnerable.
The study also identified significant exposure in the Huang–Huai–Hai Plain and Northeast China Plain, important agricultural regions where changes in rainfall patterns could have major consequences for food production. The researchers warn that the consequences of heavier rainfall extend beyond damage to crops themselves. Flooding can cut off roads used to transport agricultural products, machinery and supplies.
Areas dependent on a small number of major roads can become particularly vulnerable if flooding, landslides or bridge damage cut off those routes. While major highways can improve accessibility in normal conditions, local roads and alternative routes can provide vital resilience when extreme weather disrupts the main transport network. Recent flooding in China has demonstrated how quickly heavy rainfall can overwhelm infrastructure and isolate communities.
In July, heavy rainfall triggered floods across multiple river basins, with hundreds of rivers exceeding warning levels. According to the researchers, the study highlights the need to prepare agricultural systems for a future in which extreme rainfall poses an increasingly significant threat. "The floods we have seen across China recently provide a stark reminder of how quickly extreme rainfall can disrupt agricultural and transport systems," said study co-author Yuxin Pan.
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