The United Nations has made the grim prediction that our planet now sits in the “danger zone” of extreme weather. That’s based on data suggesting the current El Niño will break all previous records. El Niño is a naturally occurring weather phenomenon that drives variations in temperature and winds across the Pacific Ocean and influences weather around the globe.
Globally, we have endured many strong El Niños in the past, but none have been as exceptionally strong and developed as quick as this one. So what’s behind this potentially record-breaking El Niño? And how might it affect weather across the globe?
Scientists track El Niño activity using temperature data from the tropical Pacific Ocean near the equator. Historically, this involved measuring how high or low temperatures were across this region. However, scientists and weather organisations – including Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology – now use a relative index.
Instead of simply measuring temperatures, this relative index accounts for any background warming due to climate change. This makes it much easier for scientists to identify how intense an El Niño is in a warming climate. The current El Niño stands out for two main reasons.
El Niño typically peaks in the period between November and January, but this one is already unusually warm this early in the season and is yet to peak during summer. Recent data shows the relative index for August were 2.3°C above average, stronger compared to other El Niño years. In Australia, El Niño years tend to coincide with hotter and drier conditions.
However, every El Niño is different and can lead to different impacts. However, this El Niño will lead to record breaking global temperatures in 2027. This historic El Niño is already altering weather around the globe.
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