This is true every year, but after the wild Week 1 we just saw, it is even more true. For the most part, my advice is the same as most Fantasy analysts: Don't overreact. To that end, I do not adjust efficiency from Week 1 to Week 2 except in cases involving rookies or wildly different matchup strengths.
I do adjust volume based on Week 1 usage, but only slightly, unless there is a major injury to account for. One example is that I dropped Colston Loveland from a 22% target share to 20% because Kalif Raymond appears to have a bigger role than I projected and this offense may not be as consolidated as we'd hoped. Even with that change, Loveland is still TE2 in the projections below.
What does move the needle are injuries and matchups. At this point in the year, most of the matchup impact is seen in over-unders. When teams play better defenses, they generally have lower over-unders.
When they have lower team totals, I project fewer touchdowns. As for the injuries, that can work both ways. It provides an opportunity for someone else on the field, but it can also hurt the injured player's teammates.
We saw a great example of that with Drake London and Kyle Pitts in Week 1. At the bottom of this article, you will see my early projections for Week 2. These will be updated and massaged throughout the week as we get more information.
Players we had projected last week that we are not projecting to play in Week 2 as of Monday afternoon: A.J. Brown, Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, Zay Flowers, Ladd McConkey, Dylan Sampson, De'Zhaun Stribling, Chigoziem Okonkwo. Maye is a perfect example of a guy going from an awful matchup to a less-than-awful matchup.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
