So much of a fantasy manager's prep ahead of a draft is about attempting to determine which players have been undervalued, but it's equally important to dodge potential traps. Sometimes a player is coming off a big season, but there's reason to suspect a regression. Other times, a player has so much hype that managers are simply jumping on them earlier than they should.
I went through CBS' https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/hockey/draft/averages/average draft position list with the aim of highlighting players who I believe have a draft cost that outweighs their value. Please note the players are in no way without value. If they drop meaningfully below the listed ADP in your draft, then it's worth considering taking them, but my recommendation is to hold off on grabbing them at their listed ADP.
The ADPs I'll be showing below were accurate as of the time of writing. Additionally, any positions mentioned will be based on CBS Sports' designation for the player. Matt Boldy (LW), Minnesota Wild, ADP: 13.6 Boldy is almost certainly going to have a great season, so if you're taking him this high, it's not a disaster.
That said, with the bar set as high as it is by his current ADP, I'd want to be confident that he can repeat something close to his 42 regular-season goals from 2025-26. Unfortunately, I'm not sure he'll repeat it. His 2025-26 regular-season shooting percentage jumped to a career-high 16.5, which was well above his career average of 11.8 going into the campaign, so that's something of a warning sign.
Looking a little deeper, he did take 84 high-danger shots in 2025-26, which was up from 62 the year prior, which can partially explain a jump in shooting percentage, but his 26.2 high-danger shooting percentage was also a massive increase from his 14.5 in 2024-25. His mid-range shooting percentage also jumped by a less extreme but nevertheless noticeable amount, going to 20.3 in 2025-26 from 13.8 in 2024-25. If we also look at his expected goals per Moneypuck for 2025-26, they dipped to 30.5 last year from 33.7 a year prior.
What all that suggests is that his jump to 42 goals last campaign, which surpassed his previous career high of 31, set in 2022-23, might have been partially the result of favorable puck luck. Does that mean he's due to collapse? If you were going to pencil him in for about 30 goals, you'd be making an extremely safe projection.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
