Far-right AfD wins key German state election but may fail to secure majority

The populist far-right, anti-immigration Alternative für Deutschland has emerged as the winner in a crucial state election in Germany, exit polls have projected, but it remains unclear as to whether it will be able to form a government and become the first far-right party to gain power at regional or parliament level since the second world war. Initial exit polls showed the party to have secured 44.5% of the vote, decisively ahead of the Christian Democrats of the chancellor, Friedrich Merz, in a contest that was being followed across the world. The CDU was trailing massively on 18.5% and the far-left Die Linke was third with 9.5%, with the Social Democrats on 8% and the Greens on 9%.

The smaller BSW reached the 5% hurdle needed to re-enter parliament, against expectations. Votes are still being counted, but it appeared initially that the AfD might have failed to secure an absolute majority, the condition it has said is central to it taking power, as it refuses to govern with another party. Participation was at a record high of 76.5%.

About 1.7 million people were eligible to vote in the east-central state of 2.1 million residents. Polling booths opened at 8am local time and closed at 6pm, when exit polls were released. Final polls before the vote had shown the AfD to have around 40-41% of support.

The party ended up doing even better than predicted but according to initial results appears to have fallen short of the goal of its lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, to gain 45% or more. Siegmund has consistently said he would refuse to take over as state premier unless his party gained an absolute majority, saying this was the only way it could effectively enact change in Germany. The number of undecided voters in advance of the vote was much lower than at previous elections, polling showed.

In a reflection of the significance of the vote for the entire German political landscape, the level of voter participation was considerably higher than at previous elections, hitting 54% by 2pm, compared with 27% at the same time for the equivalent vote five years ago, according to the state election commissioner. The small state has been governed since 2002 by Merz’s conservative CDU, together with two smaller parties. The CDU and all other mainstream parties have refused to collude with the AfD in a government, in what is referred to as a Brandmauer, or firewall.

The AfD in Saxony-Anhalt has been classed as “rightwing extremist” by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency. At a final rally on Saturday, he told supporters: “No matter the outcome of tomorrow’s election, ​we have already made history.” The Saxony-Anhalt election had been seen as the biggest test yet for Merz, who is unpopular, along with his government – a coalition with the SPD – having failed in his promises so far to reset Germany’s struggling economy or stop the rise of the AfD, which has been making regular and steady gains since it entered parliament in 2017 and is now the leading opposition party. Irregular immigration has reduced since Merz has been in office, but not to the extent that it has appeased the average voter.