The US Department of Labor's announcement of the number of non-farm payrolls in the country on September 4 was eagerly awaited around the world, including Azerbaijan. In detail, central banks around the world were expected to lower interest rates in 2025. Several central banks, including the Azerbaijani central bank, also lowered interest rates in 2025.
This trend was expected to continue in 2026. However, as a result of the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war and the war in the Middle East, some experts began to doubt the possibility of lowering interest rates. In June 2026, first the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 2.25, and then the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1% from 0.75%, overturning these expectations.
Inflation in the US also exceeded the Fed's expectations. Inflation in the US also remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The annual CPI in July was 3.4%.
The latest speech by Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller weakened expectations that interest rates would be cut soon. Thus, Mr Waller said, “If this continues in the data due over the next two weeks, I would be inclined to support holding the target for the federal funds rate at its current setting.” Mr Waller also added, “If the incoming data for August show this improvement has been fleeting, then it may be appropriate to raise the policy rate when the FOMC meets on September 15 and 16.” The U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today that nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1 percent. Inflation above the Fed’s target and labor market gains that were significantly stronger than expected have dampened expectations of a slowdown in the U.S. economy. These indicators increase the likelihood that the Fed will keep interest rates at their current levels at best, or raise them in a more severe scenario.
A Fed rate hike could boost the yields on U.S. dollar-denominated assets, making the dollar more attractive to investors and increasing capital flows into the U.S., which could put pressure on emerging market currencies and financial markets. An unexpected increase in U.S. interest rates linked to monetary policy could also raise long-term interest rates in emerging market economies, dampen capital flows, and depreciate local currencies against the dollar. As a result, central banks may be forced to raise or maintain interest rates at high levels to protect the national currency and price stability.
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