Andy Burnham was having dinner at the Commonwealth summit in Antigua when the results of the US midterm elections started rolling in. UK government officials in the Caribbean with the prime minister scrolled through their phones with growing incredulity as the scale of the Republicans’ defeat became clear. Finally, there’s a bit of hope.” As he faced the cameras the following morning, Burnham struggled to disguise his relief that the US president could be restrained.
The energy price shock and subsequent interest rate hikes caused by the US war on Iran have severely affected economies around the world. It is the main reason why this set of midterm elections – in which the Democrats took control of Congress – are the most consequential for the UK in decades, with the potential to have a greater impact at home than almost any domestic announcement. Earlier this month, the prime minister admitted his first budget had been “less radical than he had hoped”, with the global economic volatility forcing the government’s hand.
But while the trajectory of the Iran conflict is the inevitable focus, it is not the only direct impact of the Republican rout on the UK. Trump’s potential approach to Russia and Ukraine, the threat of more tariffs and the wider political ripples of the “blue tsunami” are all being pored over at Westminster. While the US president’s domestic powers will be constrained, he still wields significant influence over foreign policy – and is likely to use it.
How he interprets these elections matters more than how they’re seen in any other global capital,” one UK government insider said. Yet there are expectations that Trump could still be curtailed by a Democratic-run Congress trying to push the party’s domestic agenda while also holding the Trump court to account and using up all his spare bandwidth. David Miliband, a former UK foreign secretary now based in New York, said: “There is a chance that the cross-party congressional majority to support Ukraine finds its voice and leverage.
But the presidency remains ‘imperial’ in foreign policy, so there are no guarantees.” Kim Darroch, the UK’s man in Washington the last time Trump was in office, said the president still had the ability to wreak chaos on the world stage. He can impose tariffs and insult allies and cosy up to dictators. All of that is still open to Trump,” he said.
He’s not going to change his mind now.” However, over the past few days, the mood music in Washington toward Iran already appears to have shifted. There is hope in diplomatic circles that the midterms have strengthened the resolve in Washington for a negotiated conclusion to the war. Miliband said: “I would guess that the odds on renewed assault on Iran have lengthened, and the pressure for resolution will be strengthened.” Others, however, are more cautious, warning that Trump, who appeared to agree with JD Vance’s post-result assessment that the war was to blame, had a record of unpredictability.
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