Fitch Solutions expects Azerbaijan’s general government budget to remain in surplus in both 2026 and 2027. This was stated in the company’s report on the Azerbaijani economy. The report forecasts that Azerbaijan’s general government budget surplus will amount to 2.4% of GDP in 2026 and 2.2% of GDP in 2027.
The company noted that stronger-than-expected budget revenues in late 2025 and the first half of 2026 had significantly improved Azerbaijan’s fiscal outlook. Against this backdrop, Fitch Solutions revised its previous forecasts and now expects Azerbaijan to record budget surpluses in both years. However, the surplus is projected to narrow somewhat in 2027.
According to the company’s analysts, the positive fiscal performance is being supported by higher oil and gas revenues amid elevated global energy prices, prudent fiscal policy, and continued growth in tax revenues from the non-oil sector. The report said Azerbaijan’s 2026 state budget demonstrates the continuation of measures aimed at strengthening fiscal sustainability. In this context, increasing the share of non-oil revenues and reducing dependence on transfers from the State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) are identified as key priorities.
Fitch Solutions forecasts that non-oil revenues will account for 57.4% of Azerbaijan’s state budget revenues in 2026. The company views this as evidence of progress in broadening the budget’s revenue base and developing more sustainable sources of financing. Analysts also noted that the government’s conservative approach to oil price assumptions in its budget calculations provides an additional buffer against volatility in external markets.
The report further emphasized that current conditions in global energy markets are generally supporting Azerbaijan’s fiscal performance. Here we are to serve you with news right now. It does not cost much, but worth your attention.
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