Flávio Bolsonaro is in pole position to win Brazil’s presidential election, after a far-right tsunami propelled him to a shock first-round victory over the incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, leaving progressive voters reeling. The 45-year-old rightwing candidate received 56.1m votes to Lula’s 53.8m – 47.03% to 45.16% – meaning the 80-year-old leftwinger has a mountain to climb if he is to bounce back in the second round on 25 October. Never, since the return of democracy to Brazil in 1985, has the first-round runner-up managed to turn the game around and win the second ballot.
But I don’t see that happening,” the political scientist Miguel Lago said of Lula’s chances of snapping back. The disgraced ex-president, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula, saw four relatives elected to congress. His 44-year-old wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, won a seat in the senate, as did his second son, Carlos Bolsonaro, who is 43.
Bolsonaro’s youngest son, 28-year-old Jair Renan Bolsonaro, and the ex-president’s 62-year-old brother, Renato Bolsonaro, both won seats in the lower house of congress. Across Latin America’s biggest democracy, key congressional and gubernatorial races were also won by staunch Bolsonaristas including Tarcísio de Freitas, who was re-elected as the governor of São Paulo state, and Sérgio Moro, who was elected governor of the southern state of Paraná. Both men were ministers during Bolsonaro’s 2018-22 government.
Bolsonaro’s Liberal party (PL) will now boast the largest caucus in the senate with 28 of its 81 seats. Combined with the seats of other hard-right parties, that number rises to 43, giving the movement an upper house majority. Meanwhile, pro-Lula senate candidates, including the former environment minister Marina Silva, the leftwing veteran Benedita da Silva, and the centrist former planning minister Simone Tebet, suffered bitter defeats.
Nikolas Ferreira and Lucas Pavanato, two young Bolsonarista social media warriors, became the best-voted congresspeople in Brazilian history, securing more than 3m votes. Lago believed Lula had managed to interrupt the advance of Bolsonaro’s populist movement in 2022, thanks to positive voter memories of his first two terms, from 2002 to 2010. Back then, a global commodities boom allowed Brazil’s first working-class president to fund major social welfare programmes that helped millions escape poverty.
Control of the senate should allow pro-Bolsonaro politicians to approve an amnesty for their movement’s charismatic leader, allowing the former president to emerge from the Brasília mansion where he is living under house arrest and reassert his leadership of the far right. The 42-year-old, who has close ties to Donald Trump’s Maga movement, was sentenced in absentia to four years in prison earlier this year for coercion – the result of his lobbying the Trump administration to interfere in his father’s coup trial. Eduardo Bolsonaro reportedly hopes to become foreign minister if his brother wins the presidency.
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