Flipping public opinion on the triple lock was Burnham magic – he’ll need more of it to see his social care plans through | Polly Toynbee

Here is rare clearcut proof of the power of political persuasion. Party conference speeches, the lifeblood of political obsessives, rarely reach the public beyond a brief news clip. But this time was different.

Andy Burnham’s speech spun the dial on public opinion on several political hot potatoes, defining who he is. The pensions triple lock, which guarantees that pensions rise faster than average incomes, has been a no-go electoral minefield despite a groundswell of economists (and even a Times leader) calling for reform to prevent pensions skyrocketing. Touching this live rail was an act of bravery – or recklessness.

Polls over the years strongly supported the lock: a Persuasion UK poll this week found 65% in favour of keeping it, more among over-65s. A Times YouGov poll this month went as high as 93% of pension-age people defending it. So the sudden change in public opinion after the speech has been astonishing.

YouGov now reports that 48% support the Burnham plan, with just 28% against. Survation finds 64% backing it with only 15% against. The magic was linking reform of the lock with creating a national care service.

Never mind that it barely begins to cover the cost, it makes an emotional link between the two policies. I can’t think of any other conference speech that reversed public opinion on such a sensitive policy. Kemi Badenoch’s Tories protested that it was just “robbing Peter to pay Paul”, while Nigel Farage’s party vowed, “Reform UK will always protect our pensioners and maintain the triple lock.” Both are out of touch with the public (at least, for now).

But this is only week one on a long and winding journey to 2030, when plans for the triple lock and a national care service have appeared in the next Labour manifesto – and fickle voters have reelected a Labour government. When the world so often turns upside down in the blink of an eye (Burnham keeps reminding himself he is the seventh PM in a decade), 2030 can feel light years away. We don’t yet know what a national care service is.